In a recent video, prominent crypto analyst and trader Eric Crown shared his insights on what to expect from Bitcoin in July 2024. Crown’s analysis delves into the historical performance of Bitcoin during the month of July, as well as his outlook for the current market conditions.
Analyzing July’s Historical Returns
Crown begins by noting that with just over a week left until July, it’s an appropriate time to review Bitcoin’s historical returns for the month. He highlights that July has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last fourteen Julys closing in the green, yielding a probability of just over 64% for a positive close.
The average return for positive closing months in July is just over 19%, while the average loss for negative closing months is just under 9%. Crown suggests that if Bitcoin continues to consolidate, a tightening range between $60,000 and $70,000 is likely.
Consolidation and Altcoin Volatility
Crown emphasizes that as long as Bitcoin stays above the May lows, the probability favors an upside, although it is not a certainty given the performance in June. He notes that June has been uneventful, with very tight price movement, less than 4% from open to the current price. Crown interprets this as an indication of Bitcoin slowing down for the summer, leading to an extended consolidation period.
One observation Crown makes is the heightened sentiment in the market, with people becoming very bullish on any $1,000 move to the upside and very bearish on any $1,000 move to the downside. He also points out that altcoins are showing significant volatility, reacting dramatically to minor Bitcoin price movements, which he attributes to some of the negative sentiment.
Positive Outlook and Potential Opportunities
Despite the consolidation, Crown views Bitcoin’s current trading at more than twice its value compared to last year as a positive sign. He forecasts that Bitcoin will likely close June around $65,000, maintaining the consolidation range.
Regarding potential opportunities, Crown highlights that Saturdays have historically been the lowest volatility days for Bitcoin, with a slightly higher probability of a positive close. However, he points out that the returns on Saturdays are minimal, both on the positive and negative sides.
Crown mentions that the CME’s weekly closure showed Bitcoin closing slightly above the median, keeping bullish hopes alive in the short term. He predicts that where Bitcoin opens on Monday will be significant for price action, potentially setting up a short-term scalp opportunity if Bitcoin opens above $60,000. However, he cautions that a failure to hold above this level could indicate potential downside risk.
Technical Analysis and Critical Support Levels
Crown refers to a daily setup for Bitcoin using his Quant Automation service, noting that the strike rate for this setup is about 52%, similar to a coin flip. The setup’s value lies in the average winning trade being over 22% and the average losing trade being just over 8%.
Crown observes that Bitcoin has been consolidating within a $10,000 range and is currently resting on the 50% retracement level at around $63,900. He asserts that if Bitcoin fails to hold this level, it could head down to the $61,000 to $62,000 range, which he views as a critical area for maintaining bullish hopes.
Crown emphasizes that even if a higher low is established, it will likely take time, potentially extending through the end of July and into August, setting up for a possible Q4 breakout.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Crown’s analysis suggests that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with significant movements unlikely in the immediate term. However, he highlights the potential opportunities and critical support levels that investors should monitor in the coming weeks.
